← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 6, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Petersen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 39% | 2.50 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 34% | 2.86 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.52 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV +0 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf +0 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.67 |
| Under | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Jean-Luc Dompé · Hamburger SV |
| 35' | 🟨 | Valgeir Lunddal · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sebastian Schonlau · Hamburger SV |
| 65' | 🟨 | Noah Katterbach · Hamburger SV |
| 81' | 🟥 | Giovanni Haag · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV |
| 85' | 🟨 | Andre Hoffmann · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | ⚽ | Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 18 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Merkur Spiel-Arena |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 978.00 | 248.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1633.84 | 1570.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.91 | 0.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | 1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.87 | 0.69 |
| league points | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 8.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.43 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | 1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| state index | 0.72 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | 0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |