← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 5, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Bauer
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 41% | 41% | 2.34 | fair |
| Hertha win | 34% | 38% | 2.91 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.82 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| FC Schalke 04 −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.52 |
| Under | 37% | 2.62 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Márton Dárdai · Hertha |
| 9' | ⚽ | Michaël Cuisance · Hertha |
| 24' | ⚽ | Kenan Karaman · FC Schalke 04 |
| 33' | ⚽ | Tobias Mohr · FC Schalke 04 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kenan Karaman · FC Schalke 04 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Deyovaisio Zeefuik · Hertha |
| 48' | 🟨 | Pascal Klemens · Hertha |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson · Hertha |
| 71' | 🟨 | Ron Schallenberg · FC Schalke 04 |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Smail Prevljak · Hertha |
| 74' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| 🟨 |
| Anton Donkor · FC Schalke 04 |
| 87' | 🟨 | Derry Murkin · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 4.00 | 126.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1474.06 | 1490.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.62 | -36.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | 0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| league points | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | 1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.70 | 25.31 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |