⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Karlsruhe 3–3 Darmstadt

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Oct 4, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Lechner

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe win55%1.73
Draw24%4.10
Darmstadt win21%4.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe −0.7551%1.92
Darmstadt −0.7549%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over62%1.56
Under38%2.56

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Dženis Burnić · Karlsruhe
11'⚽Dženis Burnić · Karlsruhe
15'⚽Isac Lidberg · Darmstadt
28'⚽Leon Jensen · Karlsruhe
54'⚽Kai Klefisch · Darmstadt
69'🟨Christoph Kobald · Karlsruhe
71'🟨Leon Jensen · Karlsruhe
74'⚽Aleksandar Vukotić · Darmstadt
77'⚽Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe
82'🟨Andrin Hunziker · Karlsruhe
87'🟨Clemens Riedel

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
13Shots18
5On target9
3Corners6
10Fouls6
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKarlsruheDarmstadt
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.52
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.680.64
cards avg (last 5)2.203.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBBBank Wildpark
· Darmstadt
coach days1707.0033.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.220.13
corner diff avg (last 5)3.600.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.406.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.007.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.524.09
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.17
dominance (last 5)0.530.55
elo1566.721398.37
elo momentum (last 5)18.66-21.38
eye test v10.430.98
eye trend v10.010.63
first sub minute (last 10)64.0057.80
form points (last 5)11.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.52
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.670.62
league points18.005.00
league rank1.0017.00
matches since blank6.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.0012.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8079.80
possession avg (last 5)50.8049.40
rest days5.216.23
scorer concentration0.380.63
season ppg2.250.63
shot diff avg (last 5)1.402.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.4015.00
skill v10.280.19
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.006.20
state index0.42-0.80
sterile dominance v10.02-0.25
threat rate (last 10)0.280.26
threat rate (last 3)0.310.30
threat rate (last 5)0.260.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.60