← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 29, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: B. Brand
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 64% | 1.51 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.90 |
| Karlsruhe win | 16% | 6.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe −1.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| 1. FC Köln −1.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 1.35 |
| Under | 28% | 3.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Luca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln |
| 6' | 🟨 | Dženis Burnić · Karlsruhe |
| 7' | ⚽ | Damion Downs · 1. FC Köln |
| 15' | ⚽ | Damion Downs · 1. FC Köln |
| 19' | ⚽ | Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe |
| 27' | ⚽ | Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe |
| 45' | ⚽ | Tim Lemperle · 1. FC Köln |
| 52' | ⚽ | Leon Jensen · Karlsruhe |
| 55' | ⚽ | Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe |
| 61' | 🟨 | Lasse Günther |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | RheinEnergieSTADION |
| coach days | 90.00 | 1702.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.34 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1547.64 | 1565.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.19 | 24.58 |
| eye test v1 | 2.93 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| league points | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 2.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.40 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 22.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.40 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 10.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.50 | — |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.35 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |