← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 28, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: M. Burda
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 45% | 2.13 |
| Regensburg win | 29% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Regensburg +0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.67 |
| Under | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Bryan Hein · Regensburg |
| 12' | 🟨 | Richmond Tachie · Kaiserslautern |
| 53' | 🟨 | Dickson Abiama · Kaiserslautern |
| 62' | 🟨 | Marlon Ritter · Kaiserslautern |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kai Pröger · Regensburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jannik Mause · Kaiserslautern |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Jahnstadion Regensburg |
| coach days | 516.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1301.49 | 1425.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.60 | -4.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | 0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.73 |
| league points | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 6.69 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| state index | -1.42 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |