← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 28, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: F. Badstübner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 51% | 53% | 1.89 | fair |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 26% | 24% | 3.85 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV −0.5 | 51% | 1.89 |
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 1.49 |
| Under | 35% | 2.73 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Laurin Curda · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 43' | 🟨 | Adam Karabec · Hamburger SV |
| 46' | ⚽ | Filip Bilbija · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 54' | ⚽ | Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV |
| 60' | ⚽ | Filip Bilbija · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 62' | 🟨 | Raphael Obermair · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 67' | ⚽ | Davie Selke · Hamburger SV |
| 75' | 🟨 | Calvin Brackelmann · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 78' | 🟨 | Sebastian Schonlau · Hamburger SV |
| 81' | 🟨 | Miro Muheim · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 240.00 | 1185.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 1.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1612.03 | 1560.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.78 | 11.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| league points | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 6.69 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.28 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.91 | 24.91 |
| state index | 0.67 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |