← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 28, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: M. Bacher
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 41% | 45% | 2.35 | value: +5% |
| Magdeburg win | 33% | 29% | 3.02 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.62 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Magdeburg −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Darmstadt −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.68 |
| Under | 42% | 2.29 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Isac Lidberg · Darmstadt |
| 17' | 🟨 | Andreas Müller · Darmstadt |
| 22' | ⚽ | Livan Burcu · Magdeburg |
| 41' | 🟨 | Marcus Mathisen · Magdeburg |
| 48' | ⚽ | Connor Krempicki · Magdeburg |
| 66' | 🟨 | Kai Klefisch · Darmstadt |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jean Hugonet · Magdeburg |
| 71' | 🟨 | Alexander Nollenberger · Magdeburg |
| 73' | 🟨 | Marcus Mathisen · Magdeburg |
| 73' | 🟥 | Marcus Mathisen · Magdeburg |
| 82' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Magdeburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| 🟨 |
| Tatsuya Ito · Magdeburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Philipp Förster · Darmstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 27.00 | 1335.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.29 | 4.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1458.97 | 1487.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.24 | 56.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.57 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.75 |
| league points | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 7.77 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.57 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | 0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.70 | 26.73 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |