← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 21, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: L. Benen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 44% | 2.18 |
| Nurnberg win | 31% | 3.21 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.80 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha +0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Nurnberg +0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.57 |
| Under | 39% | 2.52 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Deyovaisio Zeefuik · Hertha |
| 37' | ⚽ | Derry Scherhant · Hertha |
| 68' | 🟨 | Florian Flick · Nurnberg |
| 86' | 🟨 | Diego Demme · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mahir Emreli · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Toni Leistner · Hertha |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pálko Dárdai · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.60 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 112.00 | 112.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1384.21 | 1484.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.84 | -1.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.10 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| league points | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | 1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.08 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | 1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |