⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

FC Schalke 04 3–5 Darmstadt

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Sep 20, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Heft

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Schalke 04 win51%1.88
Darmstadt win24%4.03
Draw24%3.91

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Schalke 04 −0.552%1.88
Darmstadt −0.548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.60
Under40%2.44

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Guille Bueno · Darmstadt
12'🟨Aleksandar Vukotić · Darmstadt
14'⚽Tobias Mohr · FC Schalke 04
34'⚽Moussa Sylla · FC Schalke 04
39'⚽Ron Schallenberg · FC Schalke 04
44'🟨Killian Corredor · Darmstadt
45'⚽ (pen)Fraser Hornby · Darmstadt
46'🟨Marcin Kamiński · FC Schalke 04
48'🟨Mehmet Aydin · FC Schalke 04
52'🟨Luca Marseiler · Darmstadt
56'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
18Shots11
7On target9
3Corners3
13Fouls14
4Yellow cards7
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC Schalke 04Darmstadt
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.700.63
cards avg (last 5)2.401.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVELTINS-Arena
Isac Lidberg
· Darmstadt
65'🟨Kenan Karaman · FC Schalke 04
75'⚽Isac Lidberg · Darmstadt
83'🟨Derry Murkin · FC Schalke 04
87'⚽Isac Lidberg · Darmstadt
90'🟨Klaus Gjasula · Darmstadt
90'🟨Sergio López · Darmstadt
90'🟨Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt
90'⚽Sergio López · Darmstadt
coach days19.0019.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.04
corner diff avg (last 5)0.601.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.007.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.608.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.574.29
defensive leak (last 5)0.210.17
dominance (last 5)0.540.54
elo1438.291389.27
elo momentum (last 5)-27.32-42.56
eye test v10.330.61
eye trend v1-0.290.42
first sub minute (last 10)55.1055.60
form points (last 5)4.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-2.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.202.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.640.48
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.590.64
league points4.002.00
league rank14.0017.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet7.0010.00
matches since win4.0010.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4081.00
possession avg (last 5)52.4050.00
rest days7.006.23
scorer concentration0.38—
season ppg0.800.33
shot diff avg (last 5)2.001.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.4014.60
skill v10.350.34
sot against avg (last 5)5.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.303.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.005.40
squad age26.69—
state index-0.51-1.47
sterile dominance v10.13-0.16
threat rate (last 10)0.290.26
threat rate (last 3)0.250.29
threat rate (last 5)0.260.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.00