⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

SC Paderborn 07 2–1 Hannover

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Sep 20, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Bauer

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Paderborn 07 win43%2.28
Hannover win32%3.10
Draw26%3.70

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover −0.2551%1.90
SC Paderborn 07 −0.2549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.70
Under43%2.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Felix Götze · SC Paderborn 07
9'⚽Koen Kostons · SC Paderborn 07
19'⚽ (og)Koen Kostons · Hannover
45'🟨Enzo Leopold · Hannover
77'⚽Ilyas Ansah · SC Paderborn 07
87'🟨Mika Baur · SC Paderborn 07
89'🟨Sei Muroya · Hannover

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots17
5On target9
5Corners11
15Fouls11
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSC Paderborn 07Hannover
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.690.66
cards avg (last 5)2.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHome Deluxe Arena
3.20
coach days1177.00812.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.08
corner diff avg (last 5)1.000.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.004.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.353.19
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.02
dominance (last 5)0.560.51
elo1514.151511.42
elo momentum (last 5)18.2622.74
eye test v10.30-0.10
eye trend v1-0.25-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)57.5059.40
form points (last 5)9.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.07
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.25
keeper form v10.720.81
league points9.0010.00
league rank7.005.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2081.00
possession avg (last 5)52.2051.20
rest days7.006.23
scorer concentration0.330.20
season ppg1.802.00
shot diff avg (last 5)3.800.00
shots for avg (last 5)16.0013.20
skill v10.590.42
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.00
state index0.310.34
sterile dominance v1-0.050.10
threat rate (last 10)0.290.32
threat rate (last 3)0.290.28
threat rate (last 5)0.290.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.20