← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 15, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Braun
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 67% | 1.44 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.08 |
| Regensburg win | 14% | 7.02 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg −1.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Hamburger SV −1.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.57 |
| Under | 39% | 2.55 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV |
| 3' | 🟨 | Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV |
| 14' | ⚽ | Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV |
| 30' | 🟨 | Oscar Schönfelder · Regensburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Silvan Hefti · Hamburger SV |
| 45' | 🟨 | Andreas Geipl · Regensburg |
| 48' | 🟨 | Fabio Baldé · Hamburger SV |
| 55' | 🟨 | Christian Viet · Regensburg |
| 68' | 🟨 | Florian Ballas · Regensburg |
| 76' | ⚽ | Jean-Luc Dompé · Hamburger SV |
| 83' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| Emir Sahiti · Hamburger SV |
| 89' | 🟨 | Nico Ochojski · Regensburg |
| 89' | ⚽ | Davie Selke · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jean-Luc Dompé · Hamburger SV |
| coach days | 227.00 | 503.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.22 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | — |
| elo | 1570.24 | 1320.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.32 | -3.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | — |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| league points | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 15.02 | 15.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | — |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | — |
| skill v1 | 0.74 | -1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.54 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | -0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |