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Hannover 3–1 Kaiserslautern

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 14, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: R. Kampka

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover win48%2.02
Kaiserslautern win27%3.69
Draw25%3.90

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kaiserslautern −0.552%1.88
Hannover −0.548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.70
Under43%2.24

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Hyun-ju Lee · Hannover
11'🟨Erik Wekesser · Kaiserslautern
56'⚽Ragnar Ache · Kaiserslautern
59'🟨Phil Neumann · Hannover
63'🟨Jessic Ngankam · Hannover
65'🟨Almamy Touré · Kaiserslautern
69'🟨Hyun-ju Lee · Hannover
73'⚽Max Christiansen · Hannover
83'🟨Bartłomiej Wdowik · Hannover
85'🟨Boris Tomiak · Kaiserslautern
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
18Shots14
9On target4
10Corners3
20Fouls8
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHannoverKaiserslautern
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.51
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.660.64
cards avg (last 5)2.202.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeinz von Heiden-Arena
Fabian Kunze
· Hannover
90'⚽Monju Momuluh · Hannover
coach days806.0075.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.000.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.806.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.912.80
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.11
dominance (last 5)0.490.45
elo1501.771432.17
elo momentum (last 5)3.2232.25
eye test v1-0.191.17
eye trend v1-0.640.33
first sub minute (last 10)59.2055.50
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
keeper form v10.810.73
league points7.007.00
league rank8.0010.00
matches since blank0.0015.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2079.00
possession avg (last 5)52.2050.40
rest days14.7713.69
scorer concentration—0.29
season ppg1.751.75
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.00-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.4013.80
skill v10.590.18
sot against avg (last 5)4.205.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.305.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.007.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.606.40
state index0.160.17
sterile dominance v10.11-0.46
threat rate (last 10)0.300.31
threat rate (last 3)0.200.35
threat rate (last 5)0.270.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.80