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Darmstadt 1–1 Braunschweig

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 14, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: F. Prigan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Darmstadt win48%2.00
Braunschweig win26%3.80
Draw26%3.70

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig −0.552%1.90
Darmstadt −0.548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.72
Under44%2.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Sven Köhler · Braunschweig
9'🟨Paul Jaeckel · Braunschweig
28'⚽Sergio López · Darmstadt
45'🟨Marvin Rittmüller · Braunschweig
45'🟨Fabio Kaufmann · Braunschweig
86'⚽Levente Szabó · Braunschweig
90'🟨Kai Klefisch · Darmstadt
90'🟨Christian Joe Conteh · Braunschweig
90'🟨Leon Bell Bell · Braunschweig
90'🟨Max Marie · Braunschweig

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
15Shots14
3On target3
2Corners10
10Fouls13
1Yellow cards7
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDarmstadtBraunschweig
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.630.71
cards avg (last 5)1.801.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMerck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor
coach days13.00318.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.020.09
corner diff avg (last 5)3.400.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.204.40
corners for avg (last 5)9.604.40
corners volatility (last 10)4.202.80
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.25
dominance (last 5)0.490.39
elo1392.471337.13
elo momentum (last 5)-50.37-57.43
eye test v10.200.12
eye trend v10.56-0.28
first sub minute (last 10)55.8052.00
form points (last 5)1.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.40-3.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.804.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.15
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
keeper form v10.600.54
league points1.000.00
league rank18.0019.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet9.005.00
matches since win9.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6078.00
possession avg (last 5)46.6043.40
rest days14.0012.98
season ppg0.200.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.40-5.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.009.80
skill v10.18-0.36
sot against avg (last 5)5.207.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.50
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.60
state index-1.59-1.79
sterile dominance v1-0.13-0.45
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.280.26
threat rate (last 5)0.260.27
venue ppg (last 5)0.200.80