← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 1, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 45% | 18% | 2.14 | fair |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 30% | 61% | 3.30 | value: +102% ⚠ |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.90 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| FC Schalke 04 +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.49 |
| Under | 36% | 2.74 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Damion Downs · 1. FC Köln |
| 45' | ⚽ | Linton Maina · 1. FC Köln |
| 46' | ⚽ | Tim Lemperle · 1. FC Köln |
| 53' | 🟨 | Julian Pauli · 1. FC Köln |
| 57' | 🟨 | Eric Martel · 1. FC Köln |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Kenan Karaman · FC Schalke 04 |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Cisse · FC Schalke 04 |
| 78' | 🟨 | Elias Bakatukanda · 1. FC Köln |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mehmet Aydin · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| coach days | 0.00 | 62.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 6.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 10.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 3.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1501.86 | 1606.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.38 | -23.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | 1.83 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| league points | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 11.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 21.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | 0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.80 |
| squad age | 25.52 | 23.92 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |