← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Aug 11, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: P. Schwengers
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 51% | 1.91 |
| Darmstadt win | 25% | 3.95 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Darmstadt −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 1.59 |
| Under | 38% | 2.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Oscar Vilhelmsson · Darmstadt |
| 10' | 🟨 | Visar Musliu · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 46' | 🟨 | Matthias Bader · Darmstadt |
| 53' | ⚽ | Sebastian Klaas · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 64' | ⚽ | Filip Bilbija · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 83' | ⚽ | Ilyas Ansah · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Home Deluxe Arena |
| coach days | 1137.00 | 1137.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1548.75 | 1489.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 42.26 | -46.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | -1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.00 |
| state index | 0.70 | -1.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |