← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 10, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: N. Winter
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 42% | 2.30 |
| Nurnberg win | 32% | 3.01 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg +0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| FC Schalke 04 +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.60 |
| Under | 40% | 2.52 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Ron Schallenberg · FC Schalke 04 |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jens Castrop · Nurnberg |
| 43' | 🟨 | Caspar Jander · Nurnberg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ron Schallenberg · FC Schalke 04 |
| 45' | 🟥 | Ron Schallenberg · FC Schalke 04 |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ibrahima Cisse · FC Schalke 04 |
| 47' | ⚽ | Lukas Schleimer · Nurnberg |
| 54' | 🟨 | Kenan Karaman · FC Schalke 04 |
| 56' | ⚽ | Caspar Jander · Nurnberg |
| 66' | 🟨 | Caspar Jander · Nurnberg |
| 66' | 🟥 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| 76' | ⚽ | Rafael Lubach · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Janik Bachmann · FC Schalke 04 |
| coach days | 70.00 | 314.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 1.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1370.92 | 1476.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.70 | 18.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | 0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.69 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.69 |
| state index | -0.77 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |