← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 3, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: R. Braun
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 61% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.60 |
| Nurnberg win | 18% | 5.34 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe −1 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Nurnberg −1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 1.46 |
| Under | 33% | 2.88 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Leon Jensen · Karlsruhe |
| 20' | ⚽ | Kanji Okunuki · Nurnberg |
| 31' | ⚽ | Florian Pick · Nurnberg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Finn Jeltsch · Nurnberg |
| 45' | ⚽ | Budu Zivzivadze · Karlsruhe |
| 52' | 🟨 | Dženis Burnić · Karlsruhe |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jens Castrop · Nurnberg |
| 73' | ⚽ | Budu Zivzivadze · Karlsruhe |
| 78' | 🟨 | Florian Flick · Nurnberg |
| 79' | ⚽ | Budu Zivzivadze · Karlsruhe |
| 87' | 🟨 | Janni Serra · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| venue | BBBank Wildpark |
| coach days | 1645.00 | 63.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1532.89 | 1375.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.12 | -15.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.82 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.05 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | — |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.67 | -0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |