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Karlsruhe 3–2 Nurnberg

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 3, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: R. Braun

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe win61%1.58
Draw21%4.60
Nurnberg win18%5.34

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe −151%1.94
Nurnberg −149%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over67%1.46
Under33%2.88

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'🟨Leon Jensen · Karlsruhe
20'⚽Kanji Okunuki · Nurnberg
31'⚽Florian Pick · Nurnberg
45'🟨Finn Jeltsch · Nurnberg
45'⚽Budu Zivzivadze · Karlsruhe
52'🟨Dženis Burnić · Karlsruhe
66'🟨Jens Castrop · Nurnberg
73'⚽Budu Zivzivadze · Karlsruhe
78'🟨Florian Flick · Nurnberg
79'⚽Budu Zivzivadze · Karlsruhe
87'🟨Janni Serra · Nurnberg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
15Shots14
5On target5
7Corners3
15Fouls12
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKarlsruheNurnberg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.740.62
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBBBank Wildpark
coach days1645.0063.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.04
corner diff avg (last 5)1.400.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.005.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.772.36
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.18
dominance (last 5)0.550.39
elo1532.891375.37
elo momentum (last 5)26.12-15.84
eye test v10.820.13
eye trend v1-0.170.08
first sub minute (last 10)62.6053.20
form points (last 5)12.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)2.051.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
keeper form v10.77—
matches since blank7.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2085.20
possession avg (last 5)53.0049.20
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)1.80-6.00
shots for avg (last 5)15.4010.40
skill v10.650.68
sot against avg (last 5)5.605.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.903.90
sot for avg (last 3)6.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.604.20
state index0.67-0.79
sterile dominance v1-0.170.13
threat rate (last 10)0.330.25
threat rate (last 3)0.340.29
threat rate (last 5)0.320.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.80