← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, May 31, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Morilla
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Real Racing Club de Santander win | 72% | 1.30 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.25 |
| Cadiz win | 10% | 9.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Real Racing Club de Santander −1.5 | 52% | 1.83 |
| Cadiz −1.5 | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under | 33% | 2.88 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio El Sardinero |