← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, May 9, 07:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Málaga CF win | 59% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.20 |
| Sp Gijon win | 19% | 4.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sp Gijon −1 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Málaga CF −1 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 4 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.