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Andorra (club) 0–1 Albacete

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Fri, May 1, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: A. de Ena Wolf

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Andorra (club) win59%1.57
Draw22%4.20
Albacete win19%4.75

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete −153%1.78
Andorra (club) −147%2.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.62
Under42%2.25

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
25Shots4
7On target2
6Corners2
10Fouls10
5Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAndorra (club)Albacete
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.620.58
cards avg (last 5)1.803.00
coach days273.00273.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.17
corner diff avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadi de la FAF
1.20
-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.806.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.005.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.592.98
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.19
dominance (last 5)0.580.47
elo1516.911487.14
elo momentum (last 5)60.06-20.37
eye test v10.54-0.20
eye trend v1-0.370.16
form points (last 5)13.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)3.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.931.43
h2 goals (last 10)1.500.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.740.72
league points59.0052.00
league rank9.0014.00
matches since blank6.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.4080.00
possession avg (last 5)64.0049.00
rest days4.916.82
scorer concentration0.260.27
season ppg1.441.30
shot diff avg (last 5)4.00-0.80
shots for avg (last 5)14.6012.40
skill v10.890.01
solidity v10.550.07
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.604.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.203.60
state index0.86-0.47
sterile dominance v11.25-0.11
threat rate (last 10)0.240.30
threat rate (last 3)0.180.35
threat rate (last 5)0.230.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00
xg against avg (last 5)0.921.09
xg for avg (last 5)0.931.23