← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: A. Morilla
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza win | 59% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.90 |
| Ceuta win | 18% | 5.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza −0.75 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Ceuta −0.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Zaragoza | Ceuta |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.60 |
| coach days | 260.00 | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| venue | Ibercaja Estadio |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| 0.00 |
| -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1420.37 | 1479.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.89 | -4.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| league points | 35.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 6.80 | 7.82 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| solidity v1 | 0.53 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.10 | 27.67 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 2.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 0.99 |