← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 14, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Cid
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 35% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.82 |
| Ceuta win | 32% | 2.85 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| RC Deportivo La Coruña +0 | 52% | 1.83 |
| Ceuta +0 | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.60 |
| Over | 41% | 2.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube |