← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 14, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Bestard Servera
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Granada win | 47% | 2.01 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.10 |
| Valladolid win | 23% | 4.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Granada −0.25 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Valladolid −0.25 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.48 |
| Over | 36% | 2.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes |