← Segunda División 2025-26 · Mon, Feb 9, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Orellana
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Real Racing Club de Santander win | 59% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.10 |
| Mirandes win | 19% | 5.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Mirandes −1 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Real Racing Club de Santander −1 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio El Sardinero |