← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 10, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Angel Perez Hernandez, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Las Palmas win | 48% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 22% | 4.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| RC Deportivo La Coruña −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Las Palmas −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.71 |
| Over | 44% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio de Gran Canaria |