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Zaragoza 1–2 Las Palmas

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 4, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas win34%2.88
Draw33%2.86
Zaragoza win33%2.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas +051%1.93
Zaragoza +049%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.49
Over36%2.73

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
8Shots12
2On target5
1Corners3
20Fouls18
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaLas Palmas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.690.61
cards avg (last 5)3.601.60
coach days156.00156.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.14
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueIbercaja Stadium
corner diff avg (last 5)
-0.60
0.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.403.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.80
corners volatility (last 10)5.351.35
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.04
dominance (last 5)0.530.41
elo1376.671578.33
elo momentum (last 5)29.030.23
eye test v10.18-0.81
eye trend v10.05-0.03
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.40
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.40
keeper form v10.710.81
league points17.0038.00
league rank24.004.00
matches since blank7.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.0082.80
possession avg (last 5)55.2053.00
rest days14.0014.90
scorer concentration0.150.22
season ppg0.811.81
shot diff avg (last 5)1.00-4.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.009.60
skill v10.340.18
solidity v1-1.170.94
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.002.60
squad age—24.75
state index-0.210.23
sterile dominance v10.570.88
threat rate (last 10)0.240.21
threat rate (last 3)0.260.19
threat rate (last 5)0.240.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20
xg against avg (last 5)2.170.82
xg for avg (last 5)1.020.94