← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 3, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Jose Antonio Sanchez Villalobos, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Valladolid win | 48% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.67 |
| Real Racing Club de Santander win | 25% | 3.74 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Real Racing Club de Santander −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Valladolid −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.76 |
| Under | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 5 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 8 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla |