← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 3, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Gonzalez Diaz, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Castellon win | 65% | 1.48 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.31 |
| Huesca win | 13% | 7.75 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Castellon −1 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Huesca −1 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.79 |
| Over | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Castalia |