← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 21, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Etayo Herrera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Castellon win | 49% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.51 |
| Cadiz win | 24% | 4.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cadiz +0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Castellon +0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.96 |
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Iza Carcelén · Cadiz |
| 39' | 🟨 | Moussa Diakité · Cadiz |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ousmane Camara · Castellon |
| 67' | 🟨 | Israel Suero · Castellon |
| 69' | ⚽ | Dawda Camara · Cadiz |
| 78' | 🟨 | Raúl Pereira · Cadiz |
| 82' | ⚽ | Dawda Camara · Cadiz |
| 88' | 🟨 | Javier Ontiveros · Cadiz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 12 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cadiz | Castellon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla |
| coach days | 142.00 | 142.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.82 | 4.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1497.80 | 1546.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.28 | 69.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | 0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.79 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.93 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| league points | 28.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.32 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 28.22 | — |
| state index | -0.42 | 0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.19 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |