← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 21, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Palencia Caballero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burgos win | 46% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.02 |
| Zaragoza win | 22% | 4.43 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza −0.5 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Burgos −0.5 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 67% | 1.43 |
| Over | 33% | 2.91 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | David González · Burgos |
| 43' | 🟨 | Fernando Niño · Burgos |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alberto Rodríguez · Zaragoza |
| 65' | 🟨 | Esteban Andrada · Zaragoza |
| 72' | 🟨 | Pablo Insua · Zaragoza |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sinan Bakış · Zaragoza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burgos | Zaragoza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de El Plantío |
| coach days | 142.00 | 142.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 5.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1504.52 | 1371.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.07 | 35.45 |
| eye test v1 | -1.04 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 44.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 34.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |