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Huesca 1–1 Real Racing Club de Santander

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Rafael Sanchez Lopez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win37%2.66
Real Racing Club de Santander win34%2.88
Draw29%3.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca +052%1.88
Real Racing Club de Santander +048%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.85
Over48%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

39'⚽Jeremy Arevalo · Real Racing Club de Santander
45'🟨Mario Garcia · Real Racing Club de Santander
65'🟨Oscar Sielva · Huesca
76'🟨Plamen Andreev · Real Racing Club de Santander
78'⚽Jorge Pulido · Huesca
81'🟨Sergi Enrich · Huesca
86'🟨Jorge Pulido · Huesca
89'🟨Julio Alonso · Huesca
90'🟨Ángel Pérez · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
15Shots10
3On target3
8Corners3
13Fouls11
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaReal Racing Club de Santander
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.57
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.640.73
cards avg (last 5)1.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Alcoraz
3.60
coach days141.00141.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.000.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.605.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.605.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.471.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.07
dominance (last 5)0.420.52
elo1462.651569.69
elo momentum (last 5)13.2833.98
eye test v1-0.501.01
eye trend v10.180.56
first sub minute (last 10)55.2054.60
form points (last 5)10.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.05
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.720.57
league points25.0039.00
league rank13.001.00
matches since blank2.0020.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6079.40
possession avg (last 5)40.8053.40
rest days7.826.91
scorer concentration0.290.26
season ppg1.251.95
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.001.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.2014.00
skill v1-0.950.38
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.205.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.677.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.606.40
state index-0.020.62
sterile dominance v1-0.400.08
threat rate (last 10)0.260.27
threat rate (last 3)0.190.26
threat rate (last 5)0.220.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.80