← Segunda División 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 15, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Jose Antonio Sanchez Villalobos, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Castellon win | 71% | 1.35 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.28 |
| Mirandes win | 10% | 9.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mirandes −1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Castellon −1.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.72 |
| Under | 44% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Marc Olivier Doue · Castellon |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jeremy Mellot · Castellon |
| 40' | 🟨 | Marc Olivier Doue · Castellon |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Carlos Fernández · Mirandes |
| 53' | 🟨 | Ousmane Camara · Castellon |
| 59' | 🟨 | Alberto Jiménez · Castellon |
| 59' | 🟨 | Adrián Pica · Mirandes |
| 65' | ⚽ | Ousmane Camara · Castellon |
| 79' | 🟨 | Fernando Medrano · Mirandes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Awer Mabil · Castellon |
| 90' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Castellon | Mirandes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Castalia |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ousmane Camara · Castellon |
| coach days | 136.00 | 136.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.01 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1535.63 | 1487.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 50.88 | -5.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 34.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 8.08 | 7.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 22.40 |
| state index | 0.90 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |