← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 14, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 54% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.56 |
| Burgos win | 19% | 5.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burgos −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Almeria −0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.65 |
| Over | 42% | 2.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Miguel Atienza · Burgos |
| 33' | 🟨 | Mateo Mejia · Burgos |
| 33' | 🟨 | Florian Miguel · Burgos |
| 38' | 🟨 | Thalys · Almeria |
| 39' | ⚽ | Iván Morante · Burgos |
| 45' | ⚽ | Thalys · Almeria |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Curro · Burgos |
| 82' | 🟨 | Léo Baptistão · Almeria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Álex Muñoz · Almeria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 21 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | UD Almeria Stadium |
| coach days | 135.00 | 135.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.59 | 1.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1581.56 | 1490.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.50 | -25.02 |
| eye test v1 | 1.13 | -0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 36.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 8.19 | 6.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 23.29 | — |
| state index | 0.75 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |