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Albacete 1–3 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 14, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Ojaos Valera, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete win51%1.90
Draw27%3.50
Málaga CF win22%4.47

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete −0.551%1.91
Málaga CF −0.549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.87
Over48%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

37'⚽ (og)Einar Galilea · Albacete
52'⚽David Larrubia · Málaga CF
59'⚽Dani Lorenzo · Málaga CF
67'🟨Izan Merino · Málaga CF
68'🟨José Carlos Lazo · Albacete
90'🟨Jon Morcillo · Albacete
90'🟨Antonio Pacheco · Albacete
90'⚽ (pen)Chupete · Málaga CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots12
5On target5
6Corners5
9Fouls4
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlbaceteMálaga CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.53
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.48
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.530.55
cards avg (last 5)2.202.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Carlos Belmonte
coach days135.00135.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.12
corner diff avg (last 5)0.601.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.203.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.712.74
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.11
dominance (last 5)0.500.49
elo1487.761459.52
elo momentum (last 5)-10.66-5.30
eye test v10.251.06
eye trend v1-0.750.28
first sub minute (last 10)58.5053.00
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.43
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.640.71
league points25.0023.00
league rank12.0016.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.008.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4083.60
possession avg (last 5)40.6055.40
rest days6.005.82
scorer concentration0.270.25
season ppg1.391.28
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.4013.80
skill v1-0.710.89
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.805.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.677.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.606.20
state index-0.18-0.44
sterile dominance v1-1.250.41
threat rate (last 10)0.330.27
threat rate (last 3)0.260.30
threat rate (last 5)0.340.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20