← Segunda División 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 8, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: German Cid Camacho, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF win | 42% | 2.29 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.07 |
| Zaragoza win | 27% | 3.70 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Zaragoza −0.25 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.66 |
| Over | 42% | 2.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Sinan Bakış · Zaragoza |
| 16' | 🟨 | Pablo Insua · Zaragoza |
| 17' | ⚽ | Einar Galilea · Málaga CF |
| 29' | 🟨 | Carlos Pomares · Zaragoza |
| 39' | 🟨 | Victor Garcia Marin · Málaga CF |
| 87' | 🟨 | Einar Galilea · Málaga CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Alberto Rodríguez · Zaragoza |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ángel Recio · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Julen Lobete · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Esteban Andrada · Zaragoza |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Zaragoza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estadio La Rosaleda |
| coach days | 129.00 | 129.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 5.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1463.52 | 1376.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.83 | 22.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 49.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| league points | 22.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 8.98 | 8.27 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.00 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.00 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |