← Segunda División 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 8, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Etayo Herrera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burgos win | 48% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.11 |
| Albacete win | 21% | 4.61 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Albacete −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Burgos −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.52 |
| Over | 36% | 2.63 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Florian Miguel · Burgos |
| 78' | 🟨 | Jonathan Gómez · Albacete |
| 82' | ⚽ | Jefté Betancor · Albacete |
| 85' | 🟨 | Fermín García · Burgos |
| 90' | 🟨 | Álex Lizancos · Burgos |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burgos | Albacete |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de El Plantío |
| coach days | 129.00 | 129.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1502.89 | 1475.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.15 | -14.94 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | 0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| league points | 31.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 9.09 | 8.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | -0.09 |
| solidity v1 | 0.66 | -1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -1.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.22 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 2.00 |