← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 7, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Muniz Munoz, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Granada win | 47% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.33 |
| Ceuta win | 25% | 3.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ceuta −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Granada −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Pedro Alemañ Serna · Granada |
| 34' | 🟨 | Pedro Alemañ Serna · Granada |
| 39' | 🟨 | Oscar Naasei Oppong · Granada |
| 40' | ⚽ | Cristian Rodríguez · Ceuta |
| 62' | 🟨 | Marcos Fernández · Ceuta |
| 68' | 🟨 | Yann Bodiger · Ceuta |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Granada | Ceuta |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes |
| coach days | 128.00 | 128.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1513.95 | 1494.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.09 | -10.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.77 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.78 |
| league points | 22.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 8.20 | 8.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | 0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.06 | — |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |