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RC Deportivo La Coruña 1–3 Castellon

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 7, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Deportivo La Coruña win41%2.35
Draw30%3.31
Castellon win29%3.28

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Castellon −0.2552%1.89
RC Deportivo La Coruña −0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.92
Over49%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Lucas Alcazar · Castellon
26'🟨Stoichkov · RC Deportivo La Coruña
32'⚽Yeremay Hernández · RC Deportivo La Coruña
37'🟨Diego Villares · RC Deportivo La Coruña
45'🟨Giacomo Quagliata · RC Deportivo La Coruña
45'🟨Awer Mabil · Castellon
64'⚽Marc Olivier Doue · Castellon
69'🟨Jeremy Mellot · Castellon
71'🟨Romain Matthys · Castellon
79'⚽Fabrizio Brignani · Castellon
84'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots17
3On target5
3Corners9
13Fouls15
3Yellow cards6
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRC Deportivo La CoruñaCastellon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.590.68
cards avg (last 5)2.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Riazor
⚽
Brian Cipenga · Castellon
90'🟥Lucas Noubi · RC Deportivo La Coruña
90'🟨Israel Suero · Castellon
90'🟨Diego Barri · Castellon
2.00
coach days128.00128.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.240.11
corner diff avg (last 5)0.205.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.402.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.608.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.444.22
defensive leak (last 5)0.020.08
dominance (last 5)0.430.61
elo1562.501516.18
elo momentum (last 5)59.1442.87
eye test v10.150.63
eye trend v1-0.010.45
first sub minute (last 10)51.9053.00
form points (last 5)15.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.402.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.972.02
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.810.69
league points35.0031.00
league rank3.006.00
matches since blank7.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.2078.20
possession avg (last 5)50.2053.00
rest days8.006.90
scorer concentration0.320.14
season ppg2.061.72
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.406.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.2017.40
skill v10.700.25
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.336.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.40
state index0.900.62
sterile dominance v10.48-0.50
threat rate (last 10)0.230.29
threat rate (last 3)0.240.38
threat rate (last 5)0.230.34
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.60