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Castellon 1–0 Las Palmas

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 30, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Jon Ander Gonzalez Esteban, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Castellon win50%1.95
Draw28%3.45
Las Palmas win23%4.28

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas −0.550%1.93
Castellon −0.550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.75
Over45%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Enrique Clemente · Las Palmas
43'🟨Diego Barri · Castellon
55'🟨Ousmane Camara · Castellon
66'🟨Alberto Jiménez · Castellon
67'🟨Mika Mármol · Las Palmas
76'⚽Israel Suero · Castellon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
18Shots10
5On target1
3Corners3
14Fouls9
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCastellonLas Palmas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.640.56
cards avg (last 5)2.802.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Castalia
coach days121.00121.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.11
corner diff avg (last 5)6.40-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)2.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)9.003.40
corners volatility (last 10)4.222.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.06
dominance (last 5)0.550.51
elo1505.641584.24
elo momentum (last 5)40.8724.97
eye test v10.86-0.54
eye trend v1-0.010.59
first sub minute (last 10)52.9058.70
form points (last 5)13.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.40
goals for avg (last 5)3.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)2.021.20
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
keeper form v10.680.80
league points28.0033.00
league rank6.003.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8082.80
possession avg (last 5)54.4058.20
rest days8.209.02
scorer concentration0.150.28
season ppg1.651.94
shot diff avg (last 5)3.20-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)15.6011.40
skill v10.990.28
solidity v1-0.491.06
sot against avg (last 5)4.202.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.003.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.40
squad age—24.75
state index0.550.54
sterile dominance v1-0.050.97
threat rate (last 10)0.280.19
threat rate (last 3)0.300.25
threat rate (last 5)0.290.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.681.08
xg for avg (last 5)2.470.74