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Zaragoza 3–2 Leganes

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 30, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Antonio Sanchez Villalobos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win35%2.72
Leganes win33%2.97
Draw32%3.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza +052%1.87
Leganes +048%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.53
Over37%2.62

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Duk · Leganes
28'🟥Marvel · Leganes
32'🟨Raúl Guti · Zaragoza
35'⚽Kenan Kodro · Zaragoza
58'🟨Amadou Diawara · Leganes
59'🟨Gonzalo Melero · Leganes
60'🟨Keidi Bare · Zaragoza
65'🟨Ignasi Miquel · Leganes
66'⚽Toni Moya · Zaragoza
76'⚽Francho Serrano · Zaragoza
81'🟨Carlos Guirao

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
20Shots5
11On target2
5Corners3
15Fouls18
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaLeganes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.670.66
cards avg (last 5)3.002.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueIbercaja Stadium
· Leganes
90'🟥Duk · Leganes
90'⚽ (pen)Diego García · Leganes
coach days121.00121.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.403.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.202.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.605.80
corners volatility (last 10)5.592.88
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.20
dominance (last 5)0.460.55
elo1384.281561.59
elo momentum (last 5)3.76-50.17
eye test v1-0.620.28
eye trend v10.090.31
first sub minute (last 10)47.6059.10
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.40
keeper form v1—0.77
league points12.0018.00
league rank24.0022.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2081.20
possession avg (last 5)48.4053.80
rest days7.817.81
scorer concentration0.250.15
season ppg0.711.13
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.002.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.0013.00
skill v10.080.59
sot against avg (last 5)5.202.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.904.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.80
squad age29.1327.16
state index-0.52-0.47
sterile dominance v10.260.36
threat rate (last 10)0.230.24
threat rate (last 3)0.160.28
threat rate (last 5)0.210.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.00