← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Alonso De Ena Wolf, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 56% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.73 |
| Málaga CF win | 18% | 5.42 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valladolid −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Málaga CF −0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.80 |
| Over | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Peter González · Valladolid |
| 24' | 🟨 | Marcos André · Valladolid |
| 49' | 🟨 | Victor Garcia Marin · Málaga CF |
| 56' | 🟨 | Dani Lorenzo · Málaga CF |
| 59' | ⚽ | Adrián Niño · Málaga CF |
| 74' | 🟨 | Julien Ponceau · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Alani · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Alani · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ibrahim Alani · Valladolid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla |
| coach days | 120.00 | 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.75 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1428.44 | 1462.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.91 | 2.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | 0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 47.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 20.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 5.02 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | 0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 25.25 | — |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |