← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Salvador Lax Franco, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ceuta win | 42% | 2.34 |
| Draw | 32% | 2.95 |
| Burgos win | 26% | 3.74 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burgos −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Ceuta −0.25 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 1.46 |
| Over | 34% | 2.86 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Carlos Hernández · Ceuta |
| 20' | ⚽ | Matos · Ceuta |
| 47' | 🟨 | Anuar · Ceuta |
| 49' | 🟨 | Grego Sierra · Burgos |
| 64' | 🟨 | Miguel Atienza · Burgos |
| 71' | 🟨 | Florian Miguel · Burgos |
| 85' | 🟨 | Samuel Obeng · Ceuta |
| 86' | 🟨 | Matos · Ceuta |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlos Redruello · Ceuta |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 7 |
| 21 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ceuta | Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube |
| coach days | 120.00 | 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1485.62 | 1511.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.93 | 16.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| league points | 21.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 5.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | -0.29 |
| solidity v1 | -0.85 | 1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.15 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.97 | 0.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.51 |