← Segunda División 2025-26 · Wed, Nov 26, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Morilla Turrion, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 42% | 2.25 |
| Ceuta win | 31% | 3.05 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ceuta +0.25 | 52% | 1.83 |
| Almeria +0.25 | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.83 |
| Over | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Jose Luis Zalazar · Ceuta |
| 34' | 🟨 | Stefan Džodić · Almeria |
| 37' | ⚽ | Adrián Embarba · Almeria |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rubén Díez · Ceuta |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dion Lopy · Almeria |
| 54' | ⚽ | Marcos Fernández · Ceuta |
| 61' | ⚽ | Sergio Arribas · Almeria |
| 71' | 🟨 | Anuar · Ceuta |
| 74' | 🟨 | Yann Bodiger · Ceuta |
| 79' | 🟨 | Federico Bonini · Almeria |
| 82' | 🟨 | Nélson Monte |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ceuta | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Rubén Díez · Ceuta |
| 87' | 🟨 | Adrián Embarba · Almeria |
| coach days | 117.00 | 117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 3.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1474.00 | 1590.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.56 | 47.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 46.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.82 |
| league points | 18.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 3.21 | 4.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 23.29 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |