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Cadiz 1–2 Cultural Leonesa

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 23, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Muniz Munoz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win44%2.23
Draw31%3.08
Cultural Leonesa win25%3.82

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz −0.2551%1.89
Cultural Leonesa −0.2549%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.60
Over40%2.46

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Efe Ugiagbe · Cadiz
21'⚽Matia Barzić · Cultural Leonesa
28'🟨Thiago Ojeda · Cultural Leonesa
37'⚽Manu Justo · Cultural Leonesa
56'🟨Iker Recio · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
16Shots14
7On target7
11Corners6
11Fouls12
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizCultural Leonesa
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.00—
box share (last 5)0.580.57
cards avg (last 5)2.601.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Mirandilla
coach days114.00114.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.05—
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.020.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.600.80
corners against avg (last 5)7.603.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.512.75
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.14
dominance (last 5)0.350.58
elo1501.711432.12
elo momentum (last 5)-35.9520.94
eye test v1-1.310.16
eye trend v10.03-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)56.5060.20
form points (last 5)3.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.521.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.25—
keeper form v10.750.80
league points22.0017.00
league rank7.0019.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6084.00
possession avg (last 5)47.2052.60
rest days7.005.82
scorer concentration0.400.21
season ppg1.471.13
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.804.00
shots for avg (last 5)7.8014.00
skill v1-0.640.10
solidity v1-0.04-0.26
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.504.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.005.60
squad age28.22—
state index-0.690.16
sterile dominance v10.490.34
threat rate (last 10)0.190.25
threat rate (last 3)0.140.24
threat rate (last 5)0.170.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.582.01
xg for avg (last 5)0.580.72