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Eibar 1–2 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Andres Fuentes Molina, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eibar win54%1.79
Draw28%3.50
Zaragoza win18%5.57

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eibar −0.554%1.79
Zaragoza −0.546%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.60
Over40%2.49

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Yussif Saidu · Zaragoza
18'🟨Sergio Cubero · Eibar
23'⚽Peru Nolaskoain Esnal · Eibar
25'🟨Yussif Saidu · Zaragoza
25'🟥Yussif Saidu · Zaragoza
28'🟨Toni Villa · Eibar
31'⚽ (pen)Mario Soberón · Zaragoza
35'🟨Sergio Álvarez · Eibar
42'🟨Marco Moreno · Eibar
77'🟨Carlos Pomares · Zaragoza
81'🟨Esteban Andrada

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
23Shots3
8On target2
7Corners0
18Fouls10
6Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricEibarZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.24
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.510.51
cards avg (last 5)2.202.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Ipurua
· Zaragoza
82'⚽Sinan Bakış · Zaragoza
90'🟨Jon Bautista · Eibar
90'🟨Xeber Alkain · Eibar
coach days113.00113.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.804.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.808.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.085.19
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.17
dominance (last 5)0.480.49
elo1506.631347.63
elo momentum (last 5)-1.14-11.94
eye test v10.07-0.79
eye trend v10.490.19
first sub minute (last 10)52.4050.30
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.940.71
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v1—0.69
league points21.009.00
league rank9.0024.00
matches since blank4.002.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6080.80
possession avg (last 5)53.4050.20
rest days6.095.90
scorer concentration0.310.29
season ppg1.310.56
shot diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.2012.20
skill v10.52-0.17
solidity v1-1.38-1.04
sot against avg (last 5)6.406.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.102.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.202.60
squad age26.64—
state index-0.18-0.81
sterile dominance v10.530.22
threat rate (last 10)0.230.23
threat rate (last 3)0.250.22
threat rate (last 5)0.220.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60
xg against avg (last 5)2.111.83
xg for avg (last 5)1.550.78