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Andorra (club) 1–3 Castellon

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: German Cid Camacho, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Castellon win36%2.67
Andorra (club) win35%2.75
Draw28%3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Castellon +051%1.92
Andorra (club) +049%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.85
Under48%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨Pablo Santiago · Castellon
13'⚽Pablo Santiago · Castellon
37'🟨Thomas Carrique · Andorra (club)
54'⚽Alberto Jiménez · Castellon
56'⚽Adam Jakobsen · Castellon
65'🟨Beñat Gerenabarrena · Castellon
66'🟨Manuel Nieto · Andorra (club)
89'⚽Min-su Kim · Andorra (club)

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
10Shots16
4On target6
2Corners4
14Fouls13
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAndorra (club)Castellon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.30
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.10
box share (last 5)0.520.63
cards avg (last 5)3.202.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadi de la FAF
coach days113.00113.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.030.06
corner diff avg (last 5)2.605.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.603.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.208.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.394.42
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.10
dominance (last 5)0.600.56
elo1415.051491.35
elo momentum (last 5)-15.2520.16
eye test v10.190.79
eye trend v1-0.08-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)52.9052.80
form points (last 5)3.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.602.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.822.02
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.90
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.35
keeper form v10.720.68
league points17.0025.00
league rank19.006.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win8.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.8081.80
possession avg (last 5)58.2058.60
rest days7.017.01
scorer concentration0.290.18
season ppg1.131.56
shot diff avg (last 5)5.404.20
shots for avg (last 5)17.6016.80
skill v10.771.28
solidity v10.11-1.03
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.605.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.205.00
state index-0.680.19
sterile dominance v10.250.34
threat rate (last 10)0.270.27
threat rate (last 3)0.300.30
threat rate (last 5)0.310.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.171.98
xg for avg (last 5)1.282.33