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Las Palmas 2–1 Albacete

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Fri, Nov 21, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Morilla Turrion, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas win56%1.74
Draw26%3.62
Albacete win18%5.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete −0.7550%1.93
Las Palmas −0.7550%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.79
Over46%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽Manuel Fuster · Las Palmas
27'🟨Fran Gámez · Albacete
33'🟨Antonio Pacheco · Albacete
39'⚽Miloš Luković · Las Palmas
63'🟨Pepe Sánchez · Albacete
71'⚽Jon Morcillo · Albacete
87'🟨Lorenzo Aguado · Albacete
90'🟨Sergio Barcia · Las Palmas
90'🟨Antonio Puertas · Albacete

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
10Shots10
3On target3
5Corners3
16Fouls16
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLas PalmasAlbacete
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.45
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.540.68
cards avg (last 5)2.202.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Gran Canaria
coach days112.00112.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.600.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.972.85
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.08
dominance (last 5)0.520.46
elo1578.101496.56
elo momentum (last 5)18.45-2.95
eye test v10.211.29
eye trend v10.410.20
first sub minute (last 10)59.3054.50
form points (last 5)9.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.151.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.780.68
league points30.0022.00
league rank2.008.00
matches since blank2.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2075.00
possession avg (last 5)54.2040.00
rest days7.006.19
scorer concentration0.310.30
season ppg1.881.47
shot diff avg (last 5)0.00-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.6016.00
skill v10.60-0.87
sot against avg (last 5)2.406.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.405.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.337.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.606.60
squad age24.75—
state index0.52-0.01
sterile dominance v10.53-1.81
threat rate (last 10)0.200.34
threat rate (last 3)0.230.42
threat rate (last 5)0.230.40
venue ppg (last 5)2.402.00