← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 16, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Marta Huerta de Aza, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 60% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.00 |
| Cadiz win | 17% | 5.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cadiz −1 | 52% | 1.83 |
| Almeria −1 | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Thalys · Almeria |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dion Lopy · Almeria |
| 49' | 🟨 | Sergio Arribas · Almeria |
| 58' | 🟨 | Nélson Monte · Almeria |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Sergio Arribas · Almeria |
| 81' | ⚽ | Adrián Embarba · Almeria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iker Recio · Cadiz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 13 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | UD Almeria Stadium |
| coach days | 107.00 | 107.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 3.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1559.05 | 1514.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.74 | -16.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.65 | -1.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.20 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| league points | 26.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 14.80 | 6.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.39 | 0.02 |
| solidity v1 | 0.05 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 23.29 | 28.22 |
| state index | 0.72 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 0.98 |