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Real Racing Club de Santander 2–2 Granada

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 15, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Saul Ais Reig, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Real Racing Club de Santander win52%1.76
Draw25%3.70
Granada win23%4.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Real Racing Club de Santander −0.553%1.80
Granada −0.547%2.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.75
Under46%2.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Asier Villalibre · Real Racing Club de Santander
23'⚽Javier Castro · Real Racing Club de Santander
26'🟨Maguette Gueye · Real Racing Club de Santander
41'🟨Pedro Alemañ Serna · Granada
45'🟨Souleymane Faye · Granada
55'⚽Jorge Pascual · Granada
64'🟨Jorge Pascual · Granada
66'🟨Sergio Martinez · Real Racing Club de Santander
67'⚽José Manuel Arnáiz · Granada
73'🟨Andrés Martín · Real Racing Club de Santander

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
13Shots13
5On target5
7Corners4
8Fouls17
5Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReal Racing Club de SantanderGranada
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.600.64
cards avg (last 5)2.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Sardinero
79'
🟨
Ander Astralaga · Granada
85'🟨Alex Sola · Granada
90'🟨Alvaro Mantilla · Real Racing Club de Santander
90'🟨Juan Carlos Arana · Real Racing Club de Santander
1.80
coach days106.00106.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.400.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.404.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.892.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.04
dominance (last 5)0.530.52
elo1535.711504.37
elo momentum (last 5)24.50-6.20
eye test v1-0.12-0.32
eye trend v1-0.660.00
first sub minute (last 10)50.8060.60
form points (last 5)12.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.842.01
h2 goals (last 10)1.500.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.670.68
league points28.0017.00
league rank3.0016.00
matches since blank19.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8082.60
possession avg (last 5)54.6049.00
rest days6.296.10
scorer concentration0.260.20
season ppg1.871.21
shot diff avg (last 5)2.001.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.4013.20
skill v10.680.39
sot against avg (last 5)4.602.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.403.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.20
squad age—26.06
state index0.420.04
sterile dominance v10.28-0.02
threat rate (last 10)0.270.27
threat rate (last 3)0.240.25
threat rate (last 5)0.270.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.20