⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Málaga CF 2–2 Cordoba

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF win42%2.20
Cordoba win29%3.20
Draw29%3.25

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba −0.2551%1.85
Málaga CF −0.2549%1.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.78
Over47%2.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Carlos Dotor · Málaga CF
32'🟨Dani Requena · Cordoba
36'🟨Franck Fomeyem · Cordoba
40'🟨Cristian Carracedo · Cordoba
48'🟨Francisco Montero · Málaga CF
53'🟥Carlos Albarrán · Cordoba
59'⚽Rafa Rodriguez · Málaga CF
63'⚽Adrian Fuentes · Cordoba
89'⚽Rafa Rodriguez · Málaga CF
90'🟨Eneko Jauregi · Málaga CF
90'⚽Diego Bri

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots15
7On target6
2Corners2
17Fouls22
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMálaga CFCordoba
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.510.54
cards avg (last 5)1.602.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio La Rosaleda
· Cordoba
coach days99.0099.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-5.20-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)8.205.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.003.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.292.62
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.02
dominance (last 5)0.440.50
elo1464.811471.77
elo momentum (last 5)2.9955.87
eye test v10.290.32
eye trend v10.130.44
first sub minute (last 10)50.1052.20
form points (last 5)6.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.400.71
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.730.72
league points17.0020.00
league rank15.007.00
matches since blank2.0010.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8077.60
possession avg (last 5)48.2050.80
rest days6.106.20
scorer concentration0.310.45
season ppg1.311.43
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.80-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.8013.80
skill v10.270.05
sot against avg (last 5)6.403.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.00
state index-0.120.52
sterile dominance v1-0.08-0.13
threat rate (last 10)0.230.26
threat rate (last 3)0.250.26
threat rate (last 5)0.270.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.60